Germany's potential EU exit
I just did a community post about this. VNG, which is one of the, I think, the third largest, gas importer in Germany, has just agreed apparently to acquiesce to Russia's demand that, imports of Russian oil must be done in rubles. Now, first of all, there's estimated to be probably about 10 European countries, EU countries that are sort of low key quietly already doing this, already buying gas in rubles. Everyone said that they would never do it. Everyone said they wouldn't comply.
But at the end of the day, they need the energy. So they are complying about 10 countries. One of them at least is Hungary. I'm not sure what the others are, have agreed to buy Russian gas in rubles, and now Germany is. So the third largest company is doing it, which means that the second largest will and the first largest will and everybody is gonna start doing it in Germany because they need the energy and they have not come up with a sustainable adequate replacement for Russian oil and gas for the EU.
They have not. And even industry experts, including the head of ConocoPhillips, have has said that all of the options that they have discussed are inadequate and insufficient and will not meet Europe's energy needs. They don't have enough time to do what they're wanting to do. They're saying now the EU is saying that they're going to ban Russian oil and gas imports altogether in rubles or in euros or in dollars or in any other currency. They're gonna ban Russian oil and gas imports to the EU within the next six months.
Within six months, they will not have replacements for Russian oil and gas. You're going to see those governments strongly encouraging, if not coercing their populations, to reduce their energy, expenditures. Basically, it is forced austerity measures for the people of Europe. The fact that this company is caving to that demand foreshadows what will happen seven months from now, eight months from now, a year from now, when Germany is supposed to go along with the EU ban of Russian oil and gas. They will not be able to toe the line, and that will cause a rift, a massive, irreparable rift in the EU.
This is what I talked about earlier when this when this conflict first began some ten weeks ago. This is what I talked about earlier, and this is what's happening. It's moving in this direction. Now German industrial productivity is already down. It's already down by 4%.
It will continue to decline, if not completely plunge over the cliff, if they don't have access to Russian oil and gas, and they have to rely on whatever alternatives they can come up with. A little from maybe Venezuela, a little extra from The United States, a little from here, a little from there, is not gonna make it. And Germany's economy is a manufacturing economy. They cannot sustain continued decline in their industrial output. The Ukraine war is a US proxy war against Europe.
It's a destabilization project, and it is moving along at pace. This shows you that Germany cannot toe the line. It's an existential dependence that they have on Russian oil and gas. If you're asking them to refuse Russian oil and gas, you are basically forcing them to leave the EU.
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