UAE, KSA Power Politics in Sudan

I just wanted to say a couple of more thoughts about what's going on in Sudan right now. Personally, I don't think that this situation is going to escalate into a civil war type scenario. Or, anyway, I don't think that there's any desire for that to happen by any of the players involved. Having said that, once guns are drawn, it can be very difficult to get them back in the holsters again, so anything could happen. But in my opinion, I think that Sudan is gonna stabilize, and that with that stabilization, Sudan will be very tightly locked into the orbit of Saudi Arabia and The UAE.

And while, of course, this is not the ideal dream situation, I think realistically speaking, it's the best situation that can be had for Sudan at this time. I mean, look at the big players who are involved in Sudan, and the big players are not the domestic players. So the big players are gonna be China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and of course, because they're just everywhere. So if you look at these four players, you can kind of surmise the interests that are at play and the machinations that will be underway in order to secure those interests. In terms of direct political influence, I think that The UAE and Saudi Arabia have the most.

In terms of economic influence, of course, that would be China. And these three players, these three main players have a stake in the stability of Sudan and in actually trying to improve the situation in Sudan to make it more profitable for them. The United States has the least, economic investment in Sudan, and I think they have the least direct political influence. So The US would be more than happy to exploit any sort of disruption that's going on in Sudan and try to intensify it, and that does worry me a little bit. The Emiratis and the Saudis and probably the Chinese do not want a democratically elected civilian government in Sudan.

I mean, United States doesn't either, of course, but, UAE and Saudi Arabia are trying very hard to expand their spheres of influence and to consolidate their power in Sudan. So for them, it's, they have a greater and a more personal investment on which way the government goes. For The US, they would probably be satisfied to see Sudan become like Libya or become like Syria or to become another Somalia. Anything to undermine, China's interests in Sudan would make them happy. I think that The UAE and Saudi Arabia are establishing sometimes through ruthless ways, painful ways, sometimes through distasteful and degrading ways, their dominion over Muslim Africa and The Middle East.

And I think that many Muslims are going to be harmed and are going to be oppressed throughout this process, but I also believe that ultimately many, many more Muslims will benefit from the outcome that they achieve. Effective power politics is not for the faint hearted. Mohammed bin Zayed and Mohammed bin Salman are fascinating monsters, and I really think that they are running circles around the Americans. Forty eight hours before the launch of the coup, the RSF met special envoys from The US, The UK, and Norway. Now most people will hear that and jump to the conclusion that that means that this was being engineered by The US, The UK, and Norway.

But I don't think so. The RSF is deeply in the pockets of the Zahrodes and the Emiratis. So my guess is that this meeting with the special envoys was more to inform The US, The UK, and Norway about the imminent operation, not to get their permission, but to keep them in the loop and to assure them that it would proceed successfully. Now why there were special envoys from The US and The UK? Well, that's obvious.

But I think that the meeting between a special envoy from Norway and the RSF is maybe more enlightening. Norway has a long history of economic, security, and political ties with Sudan. They're investing in renewable energy projects, for example. They help train the security forces, and they have been actively involved in the transition process for transitioning to a civilian government. So I think they probably had the RSF meet with these special envoys to let them know what was gonna happen, to assure them that everything was gonna be fine, that everything was under control, that Sudan hadn't derailed.

This is all according to a plan and get them to cosign on the operation. So, I mean, The UAE and Saudi Arabia are capable of both very ruthless and very brutal power politics, but they're also capable of showing tremendous nuance and sensitivity on the diplomatic level and how to deal with stakeholders and potential threats to whatever they wanna do. They're very good at neutralizing threats before they can come to fruition. And it's almost like they're they're they're walking on a tight wire around the periphery of all of the territories that they want to have fall into their sphere of influence. They're walking a tight rope, and they're performing a balancing act.

But so far, so good for them. But I believe that, inshallah, it will turn out for the best and that more Muslims ultimately will benefit from this.