Does a Russian naval base explain the coup in Sudan?

A lot of people have mentioned in the comment section on my Sudan videos about the approval recently by the Sudanese government for the building of a Russian naval base, which would give obviously the Russians access to the Red Sea, one of the most important waterways in the world, and that The US has been against that. So couldn't this be a reason why this coup attempt is happening and that The US must be behind it and the West must be behind it and they're supporting the RSF and so on? I don't think that that's the reason, but it doesn't mean it's not a factor. The RSF is not an American backed militia. It's much closer to Wagner, the Russian, private military contractor.

And as as I said before, it's deeply in the pockets of Saudi Arabia and The UAE. That's their militia. Now it doesn't mean that The UAE and Saudi Arabia are unaware of US concerns about the military base. And like I said before in an earlier video, The UAE and Saudi Arabia are performing a balancing act in how they pursue building their dominion over Muslim Africa and The Middle East, which means that they have to engage in a lot of diplomacy and a lot of trade offs and a lot of compromises and a lot of very, very careful strategy. So in my opinion, when they had the RSF meet with special envoys from The US, The UK, and Norway, probably they also discussed what an RSF led government in civilian suit and tie instead of a military uniform, what their position would be with regards to that military base.

Now if the government changes, then all agreements can be reviewed and changed, reassessed, and a a new decision can be made under a new government. So it's entirely possible that they might have said, well, once we take control of Khartoum and we take control of the seat of government, we will reassess whether or not this naval base will take place. And again, that doesn't also mean that the naval base won't take place. They may have requirements. They may have conditions that may, to one degree or another, placate the Americans and the Europeans.

But I think it would be really oversimplifying to think that America is behind the coup just because of the naval base. I think that that that way of thinking is based on past experience with The US and past experience with Saudi Arabia because previously, you know, The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been more or less viewed as puppet regimes of the Americans. I don't think that that remains a useful way of understanding those two countries and those two governments. It's largely based on the pre Mohammed bin Salman, regime in Saudi Arabia. And it was based on the global power dynamics as they, have existed for the last fifty, sixty, seventy years, but not according to the way things are changing in the world.

So I don't think that that that the automatic sort of knee jerk assumption that America is behind everything and that the Arab regimes are just automatically by default puppets of the West, that's no longer applicable. That's an obsolete assumption. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, like I said, are being very careful with regards to their relationship with The US and their relationship with Russia. So they're willing to allay certain fears of The United States, but at the same time, they're willing to, consider and facilitate Russian interests. But above both of those things, they're looking out for their own interests and their own ability to consolidate their power in the region.

So for example, on the one hand, The UAE and Saudi Arabia are not participating in the anti Russian sanctions, but at the same time, they're sending money to Ukraine. So that sort of frustrates the West's ability to accuse The UAE or Saudi Arabia of being just blanket pro Russian and anti Ukraine, I e, anti West. And in The UAE, they just restricted in some of the major banks in The UAE the ability of Russian accounts to be opened and to conduct business through, UAE banks. So The UAE and Saudi Arabia are navigating the minefield of the hostilities between Russia and America and China while pursuing their own interests and while pursuing their own agenda of power consolidation. So, yeah, I think that the naval base is an issue and it was an issue, but it isn't the issue.

And I maintain that the RSF is much more under the sway of The UAE and Saudi Arabia than they would be of America or Europe.