Sudan Update: Saudi peace talks

Okay. Let me talk about the latest developments in Sudan. As everyone knows, the conflict is ongoing. Clashes are taking place without interruption. Hundreds of people have been killed, thousands of people have been internally displaced, and tens of thousands of people are without access to their basic needs.

Now as you will recall, I have suggested that the RSF attempted coup against the government in Sudan has been backed by, if not was initiated by, The UAE and Saudi Arabia with the unofficial approval of Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, all of whom have close relationships with The UAE and with Saudi Arabia, and all of whom would see the logic and benefit to them of having Sudan fall securely under Khalidji dominion. Now I have also posited that The United States, because they don't fully trust The UAE or Saudi Arabia these days, they hedged their approval for the coup by reserving the strategic option of simply plunging Sudan into a long grinding conflict that would neutralize Russian and Chinese interests in Sudan, as well as having the potential of escalating the conflict and having it spill over throughout the region, thereby neutralizing or disrupting anyway Chinese and Russian interests across Africa. Well, now today, May 6, Saudi Arabia has convened talks between the Sudanese Army and the RSF in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in talks that have been cosigned by The United States. And The UAE is also mentioned as a supporter of the negotiations. This I believe confirms what I've been saying.

The managers of this project in Sudan are The UAE and Saudi Arabia, and they are now trying to corral the parties into a resolution or anyway into a structure through which a resolution could eventually be achieved. And one of the bargaining chips that they're using in these negotiations is the threat of American escalation of the conflict, and that's why America's name is in the announcement about the talks. As I've mentioned before, there has been no international condemnation of the RSF, only condemnation of violence by both sides. No one has come out to say that it's wrong to try to overthrow the government, and no one has come out to say that the government has a right to put down a coup attempt. This again is quite revealing.

What you would normally expect to see is for the international community to fully back the government, even militarily, to ensure that the coup plotters and the mutineers get neutralized. So the fact that the RSF has not yet been thrown under the bus by their backers indicates to me that there is a consensus among the stakeholders in Sudan that they would still like to see the RSF topple the government. Stakeholders in Sudan here being The UAE, Saudi Arabia, America, Russia, and China. Unfortunately, not the population. Now the RSF still has a few sources of potential support nearby including the Wagner Group and including the mercenaries who are under Eric Prince who is essentially an enforcer for Mohammed bin Zayed and his forces are currently in South Sudan.

Now understand that peace negotiations in a scenario like this represent a vote of confidence for the RSF and a clear signal to the government of Sudan that they are not gonna get any support. So it looks to me like The UAE and Saudi Arabia have dug in their heels on this issue because they have their own prestige and their own influence at stake in Sudan. So they're going to insist that the government falls. Now they would like for the government to be toppled through a managed so called transition to civilian democratic rule, but here transition means capitulation and surrender with the RSF most likely taking power and Dagolo just putting on a suit and tie. Now this is cruel and inhumane and brutal on the part of Saudi Arabia and The UAE, but it's also Machiavellian.

And there is an argument to be made that it is rational and that it could be in the long term best interests of Sudan. Weaker nations will be dominated by stronger nations. That's just the way the world works. So if The UAE and Saudi Arabia are conducting a hostile takeover of your country, it's ugly. Sure.

But it could also be preventing something even uglier, which is the domination and subjugation of your country by The United States. And I think that that is the logic in the minds of the leaders of UAE and Saudi Arabia. Now, of course, you might not like to be managed by The UAE. You might not like to be managed by the Khaleed. But that's because in your mind, you're contrasting that with independence and sovereignty and the freedom of your country to make its own decisions.

But freedom and sovereignty and independence, unfortunately, are not options available to Sudan. You can feel however you wanna feel about it, and you can think however you wanna think about it. You can agree with it or disagree with it, but this is the way of the world. Sudan being left alone is not a thing that's gonna happen. A weak country, ultimately, if they even are given the choice of who is going to be managing them, that in and of itself is a good thing because normally, you don't even get the choice.