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What's happening in Sudan?

Middle Nation · 15 Apr 2023 · 4:15 · YouTube

Assalamu alaikum. Wakarakatu, everyone. I just wanted to do a quick update here about what's happening right now in Sudan, and maybe I will do more follow-up videos on this in the coming days or maybe even hours. So there is an ongoing coup attempt in Sudan right now being led by a group called the Rapid Support Forces, which is a paramilitary group led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagallo. They're trying to apparently overthrow the military regime of, Abdul Fatah Burhan, who himself overthrew, Omar Bashir a couple of years back.

Now Sudan was supposed to transition from a military regime to a civilian regime, and they were supposed to set a framework for the process of that transition, at the April, but that was delayed. And one of the reasons why that was delayed or the main reason why that was delayed was because they weren't able to reach an agreement about, integrating the RSF, the Rapid Support Forces into the regular, Sudanese military. So that has delayed ushering in a transition to a civilian government. That's information that you can find in the mainstream coverage. What you may not know is that The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been longtime supporters and funders of the RSF, and both Saudi Arabia and The UAE are not particularly keen on a transition to a civilian government in Sudan.

Now both UAE and Saudi Arabia also backed Burhan in his coup toppling Ahmad Bashir, but they have continued to maintain, even deepen their connections with the RSF over the years with, for example, RSF forces comprising a very large proportion of the anti Houthi fighters in Yemen fighting on behalf of Saudi Arabia and UAE. Now Degado said just a few days ago he's the head of the RSF. He said a few days ago that he regretted the coup against Ahmad Bashir, and he wanted to see Sudan transition into a civilian government, and that he himself wanted to leave political life. So it's unclear to me exactly who, which side The UAE and Saudi Arabia will be backing in this battle, whether it will be the Gallo or the regime of Burhan. I don't really have enough information yet to form a concrete view.

But, of course, it's possible that The UAE and Saudi Arabia incited this coup by the RSF in order to topple Burhan and have a better grip on managing how exactly a transition to a civilian government would take place, how that would look, and who would eventually gain power. Just like, for example, the coup of Sisi was also supported by The UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the transition to civilian rule meant Sisi taking off his army uniform and putting on a suit and tie. That was the transition to civilian rule. So they might be wanting to do the same thing in Sudan and backing the Gallo for that purpose. Now it's also possible, course, that The UAE and Saudi Arabia will back Burhan, the regime, and help him to crack down and thwart the coup, and then use the coup as a reason or justification for not transitioning at all to civilian rule because the situation is too unstable.

So either things to me look relatively possible, but I find it a little bit less likely that The UAE and Saudi Arabia don't have their hands in this coup attempt by the RSF. And so just for your information, Saudi Arabia and The UAE are among the top three foreign investors in Sudan over the last ten years alongside China, and they hold sway over the economy in Sudan. Now reportedly, a Saudi airline was struck apparently accidentally by artillery amidst clashes between the RSF and the Sudanese military. So how Saudi Arabia reacts to that incident may reveal more to us about what's actually happening and whose side the Khalejis are gonna be on in this conflict. So I just wanted to update you about what's going on.

Inshallah, there will be follow-up videos on this topic.

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