The Qatar Attack & Regional Momentum

What is Shayne's view of our the recent Qatar attack? Evening Mhmm. Once again, I would like to refer you to that. Okay. Yeah.

Well, I was yeah. I was in the discussion group talking about it as it as as the news Unfolded. Came Yeah. What I'll say about the Qatar attack, I I said when it initially happened that it it my my my gut feeling was that it's unlikely that Qatar was not aware and did not accept this to happen. However, it's possible that it went sideways because I don't think that there was any if now, this is all obviously conjecture and speculation based on patterns in in the way the different players have relationships between the different players in the region.

There is reason to believe that PATR was aware of this, approved it, agreed to it, just like the attack on the base, by the Iranian attack on the base Mhmm. That didn't come as a surprise to anyone, that was choreographed. So it's possible that this was also choreographed. However, it's also possible that they didn't have any they did not approve for any Qataris to die in that attack. So when that happened, when Qataris were killed in that attack, the the the how to say, the plan is an old.

Mhmm. And and now we're we're going to move in a different direction. The other possibility, of course, that Netanyahu was just acting rogue. Even rogue against The United States, and he was just acting on his own. Now I know everyone knows how implausible that is.

It certainly is impossible. I'm just naming it as a possibility that he just operated on his own. The the official story that seems to be coming out and that Trump himself sort of put the story out Mhmm. Was that he learned about Netanyahu going to attack Qatar. He was mortified that that was gonna happen, and then he tipped off the Qataris that it was going to happen.

So that's sort of the official narrative now. Okay. That may or may not be true. I think that in a situation like this where the details of what happened are not clear and are probably not knowable, the best approach is to take a sort of a theory of geopolitics where you just look at the macro trends, the macro trajectories, and the momentum of those trajectories. And then just see does this event now that now I'm not just talking about the event in other Mhmm.

But just generally. This is a general way to approach this. When an event happens that the reason for it is not clear or the the motives are not clear, Look at the trends, look at the trajectories and the momentum of those trajectories, and then see does this action halt that trajectory? Does it or does it halt the momentum? Does it reverse the momentum?

Does it accelerate the momentum? Or is it none of the above? It has no effect whatsoever. Now, if you look at the the situation in Qatar, it does nothing but accelerate the existing momentum. Mhmm.

The momentum of the isolation of Israel Yeah. The momentum of the elimination of Netanyahu from political life Yeah. The solidification of the Arab region on one strategy, on one agenda, on one plan, united plan. Yeah. And the removal of America actively as a mediator.

And as well as the removal of American military force from The Gulf, the military bases. All of those things, that was already a trajectory that we're moving in. There was already a momentum that we were moving in. Now the attack on Qatar does nothing but accelerate that. Yeah.

It just solidifies So then you can then you can that that will help inform your hypothesis about what happened and why. Mhmm. Alright. So Because because I'm sorry to interrupt, but but but because also, there are some sometimes oftentimes in in politics and in life, predictable behavior is manipulated. It doesn't mean that the that the actor whose behavior is being manipulated is taking orders.

Mhmm. But I know how you're gonna act. Yeah. So if I do this, I know that you will do that. So I will do this, so that I can get you to do that.

You see what I mean? Yeah. So for example, if you know that Netanyahu is in the position that he's in, he has all of these corruption cases. He his the settlers are even storming against him. Even the settlers are against him.

Mhmm. He's he's holding on by a thread politically. Zionism is in its last last breaths, and his own political career is in its last breaths. Mhmm. The the European Union is turning against them or has turned against them really.

Palestinian state is gonna be recognized by multiple European countries. Mhmm. You're about to have a UN vote on acknowledging or recognizing the Palestinian state. Mhmm. So there are so many things happening.

And he is a desperate man at this point. So you have to you have to look at, you know, if he if you know that he's going to behave in a reckless manner, it's possible it's you can theorize that it's possible that he was given a green light to attack Qatar precisely because it would accelerate the trajectory and the momentum of everything that's been happening, and it will it will expedite the end of his political career. That's possible. I'm not saying that that's what happened, but that's possible. It's also possible that he just did it on his own.

But either way, I said this about Syria when the when when Bashar al Assad was removed by a consensus of regional players Uh-huh. And Russia and China. When he was removed and and Iran, well, that's in the region. When he was removed and Sharah took power, there was all kind of discussion in our group, in the telegram group Mhmm. About, well, what about this or what about that, and what about the Jews, and what about the Christians, and what about Egypt, and what about this, and so on.

And ISIS, and and what about The US, and and all of these, and Israel. I said, look at the waters not the boats. Because most of the boats in these waters don't even have motors, don't have rudders, don't have sails. They move in the way that the water is moving. They're just like rudderless vessels in the water.

They will move whatever way the current is moving. So as long as you know which way the current is going, you don't have to busy yourself with the details about who's on which boat. Because everything is still moving in a certain direction. Yeah. And that's the case in The Middle East.

Everything is moving in a certain trajectory. When something happens that is alarming, your knee jerk reaction should not be to immediately talk about it on Twitter, on TikTok, on X, on YouTube, or what have you. Mhmm. Your immediate reaction should be silence and observation and deliberation and reflection, and try to understand what what has just happened. Mhmm.

Measure it, weigh it, know the parameters of it, know the the shape of it, and and make a a reasoned calm assessment of how much danger or risk is involved in this issue and or this event that has just happened, rather than immediately flying off the handle. Mhmm. And and, I mean, we would be in World War five by now, at least. As many times as we've been told that World War three is about to pop off. It was gonna pop off with Ukraine.

Mhmm. It's gonna pop off with Iran a couple of times. Now that they attacked Qatar, oh, it's gonna be World War three again. Okay? We would already have had multiple World Wars by now.

Yeah. If if that had if they if these analysts were right. All of these analysts, by the way, we said these types of things. If you follow them, you should unfollow them. Go back on anyone's on anyone's Twitter thread or x thread, what do call, feed their account.

Anyone who has just just, you know, search the word w w three. Anyone who has said, has even used the term in the last six months to a year, just unfollow them. Because they don't know what they're talking about. Yeah. It's all sensationalistic.

Just for the point of driving engagement. Exactly. And okay. So Which is really despicable. This is very despicable in my opinion.

Mhmm. And it's and it's it's it's very poisonous. And you're poisoning your culture, you're poisoning your society, not just individual minds. Mhmm. You're poisoning, like, because you get you get trapped in a in a whirlpool, in an algorithmic whirlpool that just pulls you down, that just drags you down into a into a a a crisis state in your mind, where you really feel like the whole world is falling apart and the the the sky is gonna fall down.

And you and then this can drive you to desperate actions. Mhmm. It can not just drive you mental. Yeah. You know, you you become, you know, the anxiety and the stress and the what and and then this can potentially drive you to the actions of, for example, the person who just shot that man.