The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict

Since it's, in the headlines right now and a lot of people are concerned about it, I thought I would just say something quickly about the, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In my opinion, this is most likely not going to escalate into a full blown war in the South Caucasus. Armenia themselves, Yerevan themselves are saying that they are not responsible for the hostilities that have been taking place in Goreno Karabakh. And all of Armenia's allies, including Russia and Iran, recognize that this is Azerbaijani territory and it belongs to Azerbaijan. So they're they're not even getting sort of the diplomatic or political support that they would want.

Now Russia is by treaty obliged to defend Armenia militarily. So most likely, Russia is applying as much pressure as possible to, Armenia to tell them to, capitulate and to surrender, insofar as they may or may not have any direct connection to the, hostile actors in that territory. Most likely, this conflict will be settled with the possibility of Russian troops, stationing themselves in the territory, to quote unquote ensure peace. But I think it's very unlikely that anyone is going to come to the aid of Armenia in this conflict, militarily or otherwise. The government of Armenia is also facing considerable internal pressure.

There are protests going on against the government, and I don't think anyone is in the mood for going to war. Now who's actually behind this agitation is an open question. It's certainly possible that The United States has been trying to agitate this conflict to try to draw Russia into another battlefront. But if that's the case, it seems to me a fairly abortive attempt because I don't really see that there's any space for this escalating to be honest. Now Iran has said that if Azerbaijan trespasses into Armenian territory that they would take some kind of action, but I highly doubt it.

Now several years ago when there was a conflict, this conflict obviously has been going on for decades, but several years ago, Russia intervened as a mediator, and Azerbaijan actually benefited more from that intervention than Armenia did even though Russia agreed at that time that they would defend Armenia in the case of any hostility from Azerbaijan. But now Azerbaijan is doing what they're doing on the basis of hostilities allegedly by the Armenians. Now again, as I said, the Armenians themselves, the government themselves have disowned those hostile actions, so called terrorist actions. So I don't see anyone, being particularly invested in this conflict. Now as I said, it's possible that The United States tried to agitate the situation.

It could be independent actors, who knows? But I don't think that, this has the ingredients for, escalation and becoming a full blown war and Turkey, of course, is supporting Azerbaijan. The United States, has a closer relationship with Azerbaijan in actuality, Although, publicly and in statements, support Armenia. But in actuality, they support Azerbaijan. Israel also supports Azerbaijan.

Turkey supports Azerbaijan. Russia actually more supports Azerbaijan than they do Armenia even though they're bound by treaty to defend them. But whenever they have intervened in the conflict, it has, typically benefited Azerbaijan more than Armenia. So I don't really see anyone being willing to, go to the mat for Armenia. I don't see how this can escalate or why it would.

I think this will probably be settled within the next few days or weeks, although, you know, the conflict is always brewing. But I don't think that the ingredients are there for to fully explode, and Allah knows best.