US interests and war in Ukraine. Middle Nation Podcast (E:11)

Welcome to the Middle Nation podcast. This is episode number 11. It's gonna be very brief. I just wanted to give a kind of an update on the situation in Ukraine, particularly with regards to a question that I asked a few days ago where I wanted to know whether or not you all think that Russia will or will not invade the Ukraine. Most of you said that they would not, but it was almost evenly divided.

Obviously, I don't know if Russia is going to invade Ukraine, but what is clear is that The US would very much like them to do that and that it would be a very bad idea for Russia to do it. America wants it to happen so badly that they're practically initiating a Russian invasion themselves on Russia's behalf. So here's just a few factors for you to consider. The US has used the potential of armed conflict in Ukraine as a pretext for giving American defense companies over $400,000,000 since the beginning of the Biden presidency, half of that just last month, and another $850,000,000 worth of direct weapons transfers. So potential armed conflict in Ukraine has already been a billion dollar boon for the American war industry.

There's discussions about replicating the Iron Dome system over Ukraine like the one developed for Israel, which will, of course, pour billions more into US companies. I think that The US may believe that Ukraine could provide a lucrative and potentially long term market for disposable, destructive goods, I. E. Weapons. As analysts predict that a Russian invasion would be primarily fought through guerrilla tactics, drones, and so on, which creates a bottomless demand for continuous replenishment of supplies.

This would also predictably increase weapon sales throughout the Baltics. An invasion and war in Ukraine would be enormously draining for Russia, both financially and in terms of public opinion and the stability of the government of Vladimir Putin. The US could ensure that any early decisive victory Moscow enjoys initially will be followed by a guerrilla campaign that would bleed Russia for months, if not years. One of Putin's concerns has been to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, but The US just allowed for Baltic NATO members to conduct weapons transfers directly to the Ukraine without third party approval. And this is almost like making Ukraine an honorary member of NATO anyway.

It's a small step from transferring weapons to sending advisers to sending troops. If Russia invades Ukraine, the European Union would impose sanctions and an embargo. So under EU sanctions, Russia would become dependent upon oil and gas exports to China, where demand is already declining and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, The US will increase exports to the EU, which would offset any decrease in their exports to China. While also, the price of oil and gas will soar due to the conflict and disruption in supply, meaning more money for The US and more pain for China.

All in all, war in Ukraine will be extremely useful and profitable for a multiplicity of American business interests, and The US is optimistic that Putin will be drawn into a Ukrainian conflict, and they're doing everything they can to make that happen. So I hope that gives you a little more insight into what's going on in Ukraine and what US policy objectives may be, and we'll just have to wait and see what happens.