Perilous Transition: Instability & Flexibility in 2025

Well, you know, I've been saying for quite a while that the transition to the global South, the transition of the global economy to the South is gonna be bumpy. It's gonna be a bumpy transition. This is a perilous moment in history. There are so many disruptive things happening at the same time. All happening at once, simultaneously, and everyone is sort of scrambling to come out on top when the dust settles.

You know, when I talk about what appears to be the vision or the plan of the A National OCGFC and BRICS in the Gulf countries versus the old paradigm of the neocons, no one should imagine that that means that the conclusion is a foregone conclusion or that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. I think that the A National OCGFC are the richest and most powerful faction. They're more powerful than the neocons, but they're not more virtuous. They're not more moral. They're just as predatory as the nationalistic OCGFC, who are the ones who are politically represented by the neocons.

They're just as bad, really. In some ways, they're even more dangerous. It just happens that their interests more or less align with some of the interests of the nations of the global South and the Muslim world. But that doesn't mean for an instant that they're loyal to the Muslim world or loyal to the global South, or that they're interested in what's best for us. No.

They want to secure their interests, and insofar as possible, they want to maintain dominance. So it's entirely possible if the conditions and the circumstances go in a particular direction, that they will realign with the neocons. This is why I've always said that everything is in flux. Everything is fluid. Like I said, there's an there's a massive amount of things that are that are just up in the air right now.

And everyone's waiting to be everyone is waiting to be able to catch them when they come down. I mean, just look at the unprecedented amount of disruption, the unprecedented amount of destabilization taking place around the world right now. In so many places. I mean, Ukraine continues to be an endlessly useful tool for The United States for the destabilization, the deindustrialization, and the subjugation of Europe. I mean, I don't know how much of this is being reported in the mainstream media, but Ukraine has decided to suspend an energy transit agreement with Russia that allowed gas to pass through Ukraine onto Europe.

Despite what you may think, Europe has still been getting energy from Russia, despite the sanctions. Never mind all the sanctions and all of that. They've they've still been getting energy from Russia. And countries that depend on Russian energy like Slovakia, like Italy, like Austria, are very angry that Zelensky is suspending this agreement just unilaterally. This is gonna create a a new energy crisis in Europe.

You know, every winter, since the Ukraine crisis began, since the Ukraine conflict began, Europe has been scrambling to try to figure out how they're gonna survive that winter, trying to find alternative sources of energy and so on, trying to reduce consumption. And that's been catastrophically impactful on Germany. As I've discussed many times, Germany is de industrializing. Factories are closing. Output is plummeting.

Companies are moving elsewhere. But it isn't only Germany. Obviously, Germany is the industrial heart of Europe. So, of course, and deliberately, when Germany's economy collapses or is being collapsed, there's a cascading impact across the continent. And that's been the whole point, in my opinion.

That's the main objective of the Ukraine war. That's what the objective has always been from day one, to undermine Europe and to make it a dependency of The United States. Europe is being demolished very systematically by their biggest historical ally. Ukraine is also being used to destabilize in Africa, particularly in the Sahel. The Ukrainians, obviously under American direction, are collaborating with, training, working with terrorists to disrupt the new confederation of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Three countries that are inspiring hope and inspiring optimism not only in Africa but across the global South about the potential of achieving real economic sovereignty and political independence. So they're being undermined by Ukraine under the orders of the Americans. That also includes Senegal. Although their their their connection isn't official yet, but that also includes Senegal. Of course, there's the genocide in Gaza, the situation in Syria, the situation in Lebanon.

What appears to be instigated regime change protests in Iran. How any of these crises will be resolved is still up in the air. The conditions exist for both beneficial and catastrophic outcomes. When you're talking about a multipolar world, have to understand what you're talking about is the creation of multiple centres of power. In other words, regional hegemons.

Countries that will have dominant influence in any given region. So in The Middle East, there are basically four countries that are competing for that that position, for it to have influence. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Turkey wants to control Syria. In my opinion.

They want Syria to be a vassal state for them. And they want Iranian influence completely eliminated. This aligns at least partially with Saudi Arabia's wishes. The Saudi Saudi Arabia would probably like to have Syria within their own sphere of influence, but I think that Turkey and Saudi Arabia can probably come to an agreement on this issue. I think that Iran more or less appears to be cooperating as well, albeit under some level of compulsion in my opinion.

They appear to be willing to sacrifice their militias, including Hezbollah, and I believe that they have accepted, as a necessity, the departure of Bashar al Assad. But as I've said, I don't believe that The Gulf, that Turkey, or BRICS overall are particularly comfortable with the regime in Iran, and I think that their end game has always been regime change, ultimately, for Iran. I think that Iran has been accommodating what was required of them in terms of cooperating with the regional vision, again, because they have very little choice. And I think that they believe that they can survive as long as they can adapt. In my opinion, the protests that we're seeing in Iran, which if reports are accurate, appear to be spreading.

I think that these are being instigated probably by the neocons and by the Zionists to destabilize Iran precisely because they are now cooperating with the region, as opposed to what they've historically done. I mean, it's possible that the GCC is instigating it, but I doubt it. I mean, I do believe that they want regime change in Iran, but I very much doubt that they would want to pursue it that they would want to pursue regime change at this particular moment. I don't even know if they have the capacity to do that, in fact, frankly. The destabilization of Iran would be welcomed by some Muslims in the region, but that would be very short sighted in my opinion.

I don't think it's a good thing at all. I actually hope that these protests will get shut down as quickly as possible. Unless there's a strong alternative government fully equipped, fully ready to take over in Iran, I think it would be an absolute disaster for the region if Iran collapses into anarchy. In my opinion, BRICS and the ANACIONAL OCGFC would rather see regime change in Iran by means of the regime just changing. I mean adapting, moderating, evolving.

And I think that that's what Iran is actually trying to do. Which again is why I think that Israel and The US is probably trying to stir civil unrest in Iran because they don't want to see Iran working cooperatively with the region. I don't think they want to see Iran's militias disbanded. They don't want to see cohesion and collaboration between Iran and the Muslim countries. So if you can successfully disrupt the society or even topple the government, that would derail the whole regional vision, the whole regional plan.

Because then Iran becomes a giant conflict zone. Thousands upon thousands, if not millions of refugees, militant groups, so on, it would be a catastrophe. So, no, I hope that I hope that these protests won't gain any traction and that they'll be shut down. Because remember, what this comes down to is a war against bricks. It's a war, a conflict, a confrontation with the Global South as an organised political and economic bloc.

The neocons, the nationalist OCGFC, do not want to see the Global South rise. They don't want to see it become sovereign and independent. They want The US to remain the global imperialist hegemon. But the ANational OCGFC also don't want the Global South to become sovereign. They don't want the Global South to become independent either.

But they just know, they're just realistic and understand that the global shift of the global economy has to happen. But they just want to ensure that their own position comes out on top at the end of that so that they can manage the outcome of that transition and be at the top. So the A National OCGFC are working with BRICS, they're working with the GCC to one extent or another, simply because they want to be in a position they want to be in in a position of control and influence. They don't want The US to remain a global hegemon, because it's too disruptive, and it serves too narrow a set of interests. But they do have aligned interests to a certain extent with the neocons, so they do pose a danger to the BRICS project.

Neither the nationalistic nor the anational OCGFC want BRICS to successfully achieve sovereignty and independence for Global South countries and Global South economies, that's for sure. But the neo cons are more aggressive, they're more hostile, they want to prevent the isolation and containment of American power. They want to maintain the unsustainable status quo of the last century, and they're willing to wreak havoc in order to do it. But this does put them at odds with the A National OCGFC, with the more globally minded OCGFC, which is why there may be a tendency, a mistaken tendency, to think of the A National OCGFC as the good guys doing battle against the nefarious neocons. But as I mentioned before, no matter what the neo cons do, the A National OC GFC have adaptations that they can make to ensure profitability.

So if, for example, if the neo cons move ahead and successfully plunge the entire Middle East into chaos, the A National OCGFC will adapt. It's not ideal, but they'll deal with it. I mean, there is an obvious logic to the destructive predation of the neo cons. Like the Israelis, they create facts on the ground, Everyone then has to just cope with the new realities. But again, in my opinion, the a national OCGFC, BRICS, and the GCC, and Turkey are not looking to destabilize Iran at this time.

Not in this way. And they'd be right in that opinion, in my in in my view. The situation in Syria is another one that's up in the air. I mean, it can go either way too. It either it can go the way that the neocons want or it can go the way that rational people want.

Inshallah, Syria will be stabilized. Inshallah, Iranian influence and militias will be dismantled, both in Syria and in Lebanon. And then those two countries will fall under the political dominion of Turkey and the economic dominion of the GCC. Or, The US and Israel and Iran may succeed in keeping Syria in turmoil, increasing tension between Iran and the region, and ultimately shattering the potential of regional cohesion and prosperity, destroying the whole project. Because, of course, Israel also understands what multipolarity means.

And they want to be the regional hegemon, as delusional as this is. This is their obvious ambition. They can see what's happening around them. They can see that the region in the Middle East, all of the Arab countries, they're coming together, they're cooperating. Not only with each other, but with China, and with Russia.

Regional powers increasingly are operating with autonomy and defiance of The United States. And they know that the world order that made them possible, that made Zionism possible is ending. So they want to do whatever they can to secure their own position as a regional power. And as always, that depends upon them being able to destabilize and disrupt everyone else. The US and Israel, and when I say The US, I'm talking about the nationalistic OCGFC, I'm talking about the neocons, they are absolutely unskilled in diplomacy.

They have become completely inept at politicking, completely incompetent at analysis, at strategy, at reading the room, at understanding the world. Really, Joe Biden is the perfect mascot for the neocons at this point. The neocons are a senile political faction, while BRICS and the countries with whom the a national OCGFC are aligning, those are the brightest and most capable political minds in the world right now. Saudi is meeting in Syria. Turkey is meeting Saudi.

Saudi is buying weapons from Turkey. Everyone is meeting with the Russians. Everyone is meeting with the Chinese and the Iranians, etcetera. These people are organized. There's continuous diplomatic activity, continuous negotiations, meetings, communication, and so forth going on between all of the regional actors, to the exclusion of the Americans and the exclusion of the Israelis.

The Neocons and the Zionists, which are just one faction anyway, they have a very limited playbook. It's an effective playbook to some extent, but it's also entirely predictable, which means that the the moves that the Americans can make can also be anticipated and can be thwarted. And as I said before, Trump himself is not a neocon. I mean, I think that the fact that the election was not rigged in favor of Kamala Harris, maybe more than anything else, demonstrates the extent to which the neocons are actually in rapid decline as a as a force in politics. What I hope is that rather than competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey for regional influence, they will work together to create collective sovereignty across The Middle East and across Muslim Africa.

I mean, you see that Turkey has offered to mediate in the Sudan conflict, and The UAE has welcomed that offer. We hope that the catastrophe in Sudan, which is largely to be blamed upon The UAE, we hope that this will be resolved soon into 2025. I hope that Iran will not be destabilized, and that they will be allowed to adapt and voluntarily withdraw their regional interference. I hope that they can focus on building their economy and building their relationships with their neighbors. And we hope that the corruption cases against Netanyahu, the rampant popular opposition to Netanyahu and his government, and the frailty of his coalition, we hope that there will be early elections in Israel that will see him removed from power, and that he'll be replaced by some sane politician who understands what the regional plan is and knows how to work with the a national OCGFC.

We hope that Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt will all come to an understanding together about Libya, which I don't think is impossible because it's just a matter of negotiating interests. And I think that they've been able, they've proven to be able to successfully negotiate interests recently, where everyone everyone's interests are met. Everyone's interests are taken care of and secured. I think that they can do that, and I think they, in sha'Allah, they will do that in Libya. Like I said, they've proven to be to be capable of negotiating these types of things.

I think Iraq remains a difficult situation, and Iran has a can do a lot there to prove their willingness to play ball. And I think that China is probably gonna be very important for stabilizing the situation in Iraq, Insha'Allah. Okay. What else? I'm not particularly concerned about Taiwan, but I wouldn't be surprised to see America try to interfere with Malaysia and interfere with Indonesia in twenty twenty five to one extent or another to one extent or another, but I don't think they'll be successful.

You know, India has a great opportunity right now. If you look at what, Trump and Musk are pushing for with the h one b visa program, which is causing an absolutely disgusting avalanche of anti Indian racism across the Internet, In my opinion, the Indian government should actually recognise what a vulnerability America is displaying right now by this programme that they're pushing. And they should basically ban their own tech professionals from immigrating to The US. America is trying to force a brain drain on India, and India shouldn't let them. Let them go to The Gulf.

Let them go to The Gulf instead. Saudi Arabia just discovered lithium reserves, and they're advancing by leaps and bounds in their own tech sector. My opinion, every country in the global South should restrict immigration to The US, frankly, and to the West generally. I mean, just want you to go there to be punching bags and to provide life support to their faltering economies. Wallahi, you should you should boycott the West, honestly.

They shouldn't be allowed to mine your talent and mine your skills the same way that they mine your natural resources. As far as Europe goes, see greater destabilization, I see greater deindustrialization, I see greater turmoil, poverty, violence, and conflict. That's what's gonna happen on the on the European continent. There's gonna be greater restrictions on freedom, restrictions on civil rights, there's gonna be more crime, more terrorism, civil unrest, and so on. And America itself is gonna be subjected to greater neoliberalism within the country domestically.

Privatization of government functions, greater isolation, greater domestic repression and so forth. But inshallah, think that 2025 is gonna be overall a good year for the global South. But of course, I expect it to be rough, as I said, I expect it to be rough. This is more than just an economical political transition of power, the transition of the centers of power. This is literally dislodging a rabid, vicious attack dog from the body of collective humanity.

It's dangerous and it's a painful undertaking, I but think that inshallah we will emerge scars and all. The world has been held hostage for too long, but the hostage taker took us when we were still little. They abducted us when we were still little. And they've done nothing but get older and weaker while we've gotten bigger and stronger, and we have a chance to escape now. It's still risky, it's still dangerous, but inshallah it's gonna happen.

It has to happen. There's not another way for it to go. It's just a question of how difficult or how easy it will be, how rough or how smooth it will be. But the the the destination is clear, the outcome is clear, I think that it's inevitable, it's unavoidable, it will definitely happen, it's just how difficult will the journey be on the way there.